Keeping track of AI timeline
"We demonstrate that, beyond its mastery of language, GPT-4 can solve novel and difficult tasks that span mathematics, coding, vision, medicine, law, psychology and more, without needing any special prompting. Moreover, in all of these tasks, GPT-4's performance is strikingly close to human-level performance, and often vastly surpasses prior models such as ChatGPT. Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4's capabilities, we believe that it could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system. In our exploration of GPT-4, we put special emphasis on discovering its limitations, and we discuss the challenges ahead for advancing towards deeper and more comprehensive versions of AGI, including the possible need for pursuing a new paradigm that moves beyond next-word prediction. We conclude with reflections on societal influences of the recent technological leap and future research directions."
[2303.12712] Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4 (arxiv.org)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7vcA91Ec-c&ab_channel=LexClips
https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/ai-timelines
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/