<img src="https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1692435478204/abe904f3-65f6-4dab-8edf-a51e04b0b15b.png" alt class="image--center mx-auto" />
<img src="https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1692435765482/a9dfd345-33fe-413a-a50a-5d4a9eefa044.png" alt class="image--center mx-auto" />
<img src="https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1692435933504/907e2782-43a1-435d-b969-48230bc3e4fa.png" alt class="image--center mx-auto" />
<h3 id="heading-facts-amp-analysis">Facts &amp; Analysis</h3>
<ul>
<li>Recession usually appears ~8 months after peak FED rates
</li>
<li>Inflation is still higher than ideal (2%)
</li>
<li>FED rates seem to be peaking already, with maybe 1-2 last hikes
</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="heading-my-prediction">My prediction</h3>
<ul>
<li>1 more rate hike for 2023 in September (peak)
</li>
<li>Soft recession by May 2024 (US, other countries might lag 3-6 months behind)
</li>
<li>Business as usual by Jan 2025 (US, other countries might lag 3-6 months behind)
</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="heading-update-1-april-10-2024">Update 1 (April 10 2024)</h3>
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/inflation-march-cpi-data-report-today">https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/inflation-march-cpi-data-report-today</a>
<img src="https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1712753723870/ebe0873b-1b74-4706-a49d-000e3d890d7f.png" alt class="image--center mx-auto" />
<img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GK7Pk5gXIAEH7c7?format=jpg&amp;name=large" alt="Image" />
Ref:
<a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS</a>
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/08/16/more-interest-rate-hikes-may-still-be-on-deck-federal-reserve-warns/?sh=3aea1b644847">https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/08/16/more-interest-rate-hikes-may-still-be-on-deck-federal-reserve-warns/?sh=3aea1b644847</a>
<a target="_blank" href="https://manifold.markets/Cactus/recession-in-2024">https://manifold.markets/Cactus/recession-in-2024</a>
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.franklintempleton.com/insights/anatomy-of-a-recession">https://www.franklintempleton.com/insights/anatomy-of-a-recession</a>

![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1692435478204/abe904f3-65f6-4dab-8edf-a51e04b0b15b.png align="center")

![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1692435765482/a9dfd345-33fe-413a-a50a-5d4a9eefa044.png align="center")

![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1692435933504/907e2782-43a1-435d-b969-48230bc3e4fa.png align="center")

### Facts & Analysis

* Recession usually appears ~8 months after peak FED rates
    
* Inflation is still higher than ideal (2%)
    
* FED rates seem to be peaking already, with maybe 1-2 last hikes
    

### My prediction

* 1 more rate hike for 2023 in September (peak)
    
* Soft recession by May 2024 (US, other countries might lag 3-6 months behind)
    
* Business as usual by Jan 2025 (US, other countries might lag 3-6 months behind)
    

### Update 1 (April 10 2024)

[https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/inflation-march-cpi-data-report-today](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/inflation-march-cpi-data-report-today)

![](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1712753723870/ebe0873b-1b74-4706-a49d-000e3d890d7f.png align="center")

![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GK7Pk5gXIAEH7c7?format=jpg&name=large align="left")

Ref:

[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS)

[https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/08/16/more-interest-rate-hikes-may-still-be-on-deck-federal-reserve-warns/?sh=3aea1b644847](https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/08/16/more-interest-rate-hikes-may-still-be-on-deck-federal-reserve-warns/?sh=3aea1b644847)

[https://manifold.markets/Cactus/recession-in-2024](https://manifold.markets/Cactus/recession-in-2024)

[https://www.franklintempleton.com/insights/anatomy-of-a-recession](https://www.franklintempleton.com/insights/anatomy-of-a-recession)

Soft landing or recession? my prediction

What I do not create, I only partially understand


D personal tech nuggets

D personal tech nuggets

Soft landing or recession? my prediction

Facts & Analysis

My prediction

Update 1 (April 10 2024)